Criteria for Bayesian model choice with application to variable selection

In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propose differing prior choices. We first formalize the most general and compelling of the various criteria that have been suggested, together with a new criterion. We then illustrate the potential of these criteria in determining objective model selection priors by considering their application to the problem of variable selection in normal linear models. This results in a new model selection objective prior with a number of compelling properties.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS1013 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Objective Bayes testing of Poisson versus inflated Poisson models

The Poisson distribution is often used as a standard model for count data. Quite often, however, such data sets are not well fit by a Poisson model because they have more zeros than are compatible with this model. For these situations, a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution is often proposed. This article addresses testing a Poisson versus a ZIP model, using Bayesian methodology based on suitable objective priors. Specific choices of objective priors are justified and their properties investigated. The methodology is extended to include covariates in regression models. Several applications are given.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921708000000093 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Prospects for near-infrared characterisation of hot Jupiters with VSI

In this paper, we study the feasibility of obtaining near-infrared spectra of bright extrasolar planets with the 2nd generation VLTI Spectro-Imager instrument (VSI), which has the required angular resolution to resolve nearby hot Extrasolar Giant Planets (EGPs) from their host stars. Taking into account fundamental noises, we simulate closure phase measurements of several extrasolar systems using four 8-m telescopes at the VLT and a low spectral resolution (R = 100). Synthetic planetary spectra from T. Barman are used as an input. Standard chi2-fitting methods are then used to reconstruct planetary spectra from the simulated data. These simulations show that low-resolution spectra in the H and K bands can be retrieved with a good fidelity for half a dozen targets in a reasonable observing time (about 10 hours, spread over a few nights). Such observations would strongly constrain the planetary temperature and albedo, the energy redistribution mechanisms, as well as the chemical composition of their atmospheres. Systematic errors, not included in our simulations, could be a serious limitation to these performance estimations. The use of integrated optics is however expected to provide the required instrumental stability (around 10^-4 on the closure phase) to enable the first thorough characterisation of extrasolar planetary emission spectra in the near-infrared.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, Proc. SPIE conference 7013 "Optical and Infrared Interferometry" (Marseille 2008

Incommensurate magnetic ordering in Cu2Te2O5X2Cu_2 Te_2 O_5 X_2 (X=Cl,Br) studied by neutron diffraction

We present the results of the first neutron powder and single crystal diffraction studies of the coupled spin tetrahedra systems {\CuTeX} (X=Cl, Br). Incommensurate antiferromagnetic order with the propagation vectors {\bf{k}_{Cl}}\approx[0.150,0.422,\half], {\bf{k}_{Br}}\approx[0.158,0.354,\half] sets in below $T_{N}$=18 K for X=Cl and 11 K for X=Br. No simple collinear antiferromagnetic or ferromagnetic arrangements of moments within Cu${}^{2+}$ tetrahedra fit these observations. Fitting the diffraction data to more complex but physically reasonable models with multiple helices leads to a moment of 0.67(1)$\mu_B$/Cu${}^{2+}$ at 1.5 K for the Cl-compound. The reason for such a complex ground state may be geometrical frustration of the spins due to the intra- and inter-tetrahedral couplings having similar strengths. The magnetic moment in the Br- compound, calculated assuming it has the same magnetic structure as the Cl compound, is only 0.51(5)$\mu_B$/Cu${}^{2+}$ at 1.5 K. In neither compound has any evidence for a structural transition accompanying the magnetic ordering been found

The VLQ Calorimeter of H1 at HERA: A Highly Compact Device for Measurements of Electrons and Photons under Very Small Scattering Angles

In 1998, the detector H1 at HERA has been equipped with a small backward spectrometer, the Very Low Q^2 (VLQ) spectrometer comprising a silicon tracker, a tungsten - scintillator sandwich calorimeter, and a Time-of-Flight system. The spectrometer was designed to measure electrons scattered under very low angles, equivalent to very low squared four - momentum transfers Q^2, and high energy photons with good energy and spatial resolution. The VLQ was in operation during the 1999 and 2000 run periods. This paper describes the design and construction of the VLQ calorimeter, a compact device with a fourfold projective energy read-out, and its performance during test runs and in the experiment.Comment: 32 pages, 25 figures, 2 tables (To be submitted to Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A

Superfield Realizations of Lorentz and CPT Violation

Superfield realizations of Lorentz-violating extensions of the Wess-Zumino model are presented. These models retain supersymmetry but include terms that explicitly break the Lorentz symmetry. The models can be understood as arising from superspace transformations that are modifications of the familiar one in the Lorentz-symmetric case.Comment: 10 page

Reference priors for high energy physics

Bayesian inferences in high energy physics often use uniform prior distributions for parameters about which little or no information is available before data are collected. The resulting posterior distributions are therefore sensitive to the choice of parametrization for the problem and may even be improper if this choice is not carefully considered. Here we describe an extensively tested methodology, known as reference analysis, which allows one to construct parametrization-invariant priors that embody the notion of minimal informativeness in a mathematically well-defined sense. We apply this methodology to general cross section measurements and show that it yields sensible results. A recent measurement of the single top quark cross section illustrates the relevant techniques in a realistic situation